Best player in attendance: Markelle Fultz (No. 1 on Sporting News Big Board)
Fultz has decided to attend the combine, but he won’t be asked to play in the five-on-five. That means he’ll be there to measure, possibly conduct athletic and medical testing and interview for teams. He’s not considered a liability to perform poorly in any of those portions of the combine, meaning it’s a no-risk scenario for him.
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Best player not in attendance: Jayson Tatum (No. 2)
An appearance at the combine would have been relatively low-risk for Tatum, too, given that teams have been scouting him for roughly four years due to his ubiquitous presence early in his high school career at youth camps for Team USA. But because of that, it’s also a meaningless event for him. Tatum will neither help nor hurt himself by attending, so the question becomes: Why go? A similar decision was made by plenty of other top prospects including Josh Jackson, Lonzo Ball, Jonathan Isaac, Dennis Smith, Malik Monk and Lauri Markkanen. All of these guys are elite, and all only have a limited number of teams that will be in the market for them due to their talent. They’ll work out for those teams and go from there.
Ultimately, I’m happy those players made the decision that they did. These guys are known quantities that are unlikely to make a difference for themselves by going to Chicago. However, by deciding not to go, their spots can go to other players, such as Isaiah Briscoe, Eric Mika, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks, who are still trying to make an impression on NBA scouts and can help themselves in the process.
Player with the most to gain: Hamidou Diallo (No. 25)
As of publish date, per DraftExpress, Diallo is slated to play in the five-on-five portion of the combine. If he is to perform to what his talent level is — as a 6-5 elite athlete who can get up and down the floor and play with a high-level motor, the current Kentucky Wildcat could push himself into lottery discussions and end up eschewing his freshman year at Kentucky.
Player with the most to lose: Hamidou Diallo (No. 25)
However, if he is to perform to what his current experience level is — which is to say, never participating in a collegiate game against players 20 to 23 years old like he’ll be performing against here — it could hurt his stock enough to where teams don’t believe he’ll be ready early enough to contribute on his rookie contract, and he’ll get indications that he should return to school. No pressure, just have to perform in your first-ever set of games against this level of competition, with potentially millions of dollars riding on the outcome.
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To me, Diallo is the most fascinating player testing his stock. If I was advising him, I’d tell him not to take the risk of playing in these five-on-five games. He doesn’t have the tape over the last year to counteract the effect of the bad taste that they could leave in evaluators’ mouths. I believe that someone would take the risk of selecting him in the first round, particularly with multiple teams (Portland, Brooklyn and Utah) having multiple picks late in the opening stanza. Playing in a somewhat uncontrolled five-on-five setting against a competitive all-star game of NCAA players seems unnecessary.
(UPDATE, May 8: Indeed, Diallo will not be playing in five-on-five this week, according to a report from DraftExpress. As noted above, that’s probably the right call.)
Five other interesting players testing the waters:
Andrew Jones (No. 51): Jones has one of the more volatile stocks around the NBA depending on who you talk to. Some executives think he could slide into the late first round due to his tremendous quickness; others wouldn’t touch him until far later due to his current lack of true point guard IQ. I’m on the lower side of that spectrum. Tests and interviews will be exceedingly important as to whether it makes sense for him to stay in the draft.
D.J. Wilson (No. 33): Wilson’s still a bit of a project as an athletic big man with long arms who can shoot. His decision — along with that of Moritz Wagner — will have major repercussions on what Michigan will look like next season. Showcasing that he can step back and hit the NBA 3-pointer as well as confidently switch screen and rolls with good footwork would go a long way for Wilson.
Semi Ojeleye (No. 24): I’m higher on Ojeleye than most, seeing him as a pro-ready combo forward who can defend on the perimeter, keep players off the block and knock down shots. Showcasing those skills in five-on-five would make it awfully tough for him to return to school.
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Rawle Alkins (No. 43): Another freshman who could push himself into the first-round conversation with a strong week. Teams are consistently in need of one thing around the league: wings. At 6-5 with what seems to be solid length, Alkins works hard and has a tremendous physical frame with a lot of strength. The questions are whether he can shoot at a high enough clip, and whether his skills have caught up to his body.
Frank Jackson (No. 41): Jackson will have a tough choice ahead of him, especially if Trevon Duval commits to Duke before May 24. If the Lone Peak High School star returns to Duke, he runs the risk of falling behind Duval and Grayson Allen in the rotation. If he stays in the draft, he may not go in the first round. Coming out and destroying the combine and leaving no doubt as to his athleticism and scoring ability might help to make what is shaping up to be an impossible decision a bit easier.
Six players firmly in the draft who could use big performances:
Dwayne Bacon (No. 45): Bacon is a long, athletic wing who could work his way into the first round with a strong performance. He’ll need to show off an improved shot on the floor, as well as a willingness to buy into becoming a role player in interviews.
Isaiah Briscoe (No. 78): Briscoe was another player in an impossible position. Play out of position at Kentucky again with Quade Green in tow, or decide to declare for the draft? Briscoe decided to try his luck. He’ll also need to show off improved shooting mechanics to pair with his ability to pass as well as defend.
Dillon Brooks (No. 52): Brooks was one of the best players in college basketball this year, but struggled in the NCAA Tournament in a variety of matchups that pitted him against stronger athletes and length. Brooks is caught between NBA positions defensively, and needs to show that he can score efficiently against more athletic players. He’s also another player who wouldn’t hurt himself by showing off better shooting.
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Tyler Dorsey (No. 58): Dorsey isn’t the best athlete, he’s not the longest player in the world and he’s not really a point guard. But the kid just gets buckets. He can knock down shots with the best of them, as he showed in Oregon’s run to the Final Four. The question is: will that hold up against elite, longer athletes? If he can score against them consistently, he’s an NBA player despite some limited defensive potential. If he can’t? He’ll have a long, fruitful career making a lot of money in Greece.
Kyle Kuzma (No. 57): Kuzma is a long, 6-9 wing who has potential to shoot and rebound. I’d like to see more shooting consistency and defensive impact, though, and this could be a week for him to show that off.
Thomas Bryant (No. 53): Bryant needs to show off a consistent jumper on the move, but more than that he needs to play better defensively — particularly in terms of his lateral quickness and agility. He’s all too often struggled in pick-and-roll against elite guards, and guys like Frank Mason, Monte Morris, Melo Trimble and Dorsey could give him fits in this setting.
This year’s International Man of Mystery: Jonathan Jeanne (No. 35)
Jeanne is a 7-2 (without shoes, per DraftExpress) center with a 7-7 wingspan who should be highly intriguing to teams late in the first round who need to stash a player due to having multiple picks. He’s obviously got a ton of potential as a mobile shot-blocker, but he’s extremely skinny at this stage and still is developing in terms of skill set. We’ll see if he ends up making an impact.
The most surprising invite: Thomas Welsh (No. 91)
Welsh is an absolutely lethal midrange shooter at the moment who is working on 3-point range.
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But he still doesn’t provide enough value on defense, and was seen as a relatively likely returnee to school. It’s totally plausible he could get to the NBA in the future, but I’m surprised NBA teams chose him over a few other guys that will absolutely be in the draft.
The biggest invite snub: L.J. Peak (No. 59)
Peak is a 6-5 wing with long arms that already defends and has potential to knock down shots in the future. These types of players are valuable, and it wouldn’t be a total shock to see him get a two-way deal from a team this offseason. Plus, he’s definitely in the draft after signing with an agent. Currently an alternate, it’s possible he’ll end up in attendance. For now, he’ll be sitting at home along with guys like Antonio Blakeney, Amile Jefferson, Trevon Bluiett and Deng Adel.
The five Portsmouth Invitees:
Derrick White (No. 49), Davon Reed (No. 68), Damyean Dotson (No. 80), Kadeem Allen (No. 90) Jamel Artis (No. 97)
Each year, the NBA Draft Combine invites five players from the Portsmouth Invitational — a seniors-only event in the postseason that acts as something of a pre-combine. The most interesting of these five players to make the combine is White, who could get himself into the first round by the end of the process if he has a good set of combine-plus-workouts.
Regardless, it’s cool that the NBA rewards dudes for going out and putting themselves out there in a process that often rewards the opposite.
