As we get ready to kick off the college season, maybe tamped-down expectations are a good thing. After all, last year’s class of rookies were expected to be a life-changing group, and while it is obviously quite early in their development, the initial results have been ho-hum: Only one draftee, Jabari Parker, is averaging double-digits in scoring, and he is shooting just 41.9 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from the free-throw line.
“There are going to be some stars in the Class of 2015, I think there are players to be excited about,” one general manager told Sporting News. “But it will be top-heavy, and after that, you will have some gambles. I would call it a good bunch of players, a few All-Stars most likely, but not a truly great class. A lot of these players have some big questions to answer.”
With the new season beginning, just what are those questions that need answering? We checked in with scouts and personnel executives around the league to identify 10 players who have unknowns to fight through in order to secure their best-case spots in the draft. Here’s what we found:
Jahlil Okafor, Duke
Okafor is as polished an offensive post player as there will be in the NCAA this year, with an NBA-ready frame (6-11, 270 pounds, with a 7-5 wingspan) and a deft set of interior moves and counter-moves. He has already flashed a developing hook shot to go with his solid footwork. Okafor should have little trouble putting up big scoring numbers this season.
Best-case: No. 1 pick
Scout’s question: “I don’t know if he is ready defensively, that is the big area where I want to see more. From what I have seen, he does take a back seat on defense and does not attack for rebounds the way you’d like. Positioning, things like that. He is already a great offensive player, but it’s the other end that he needs to work on.”
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
Towns is another in a long line of prized Wildcat recruits, a legitimate 7-footer who can dazzle with his skillset. He runs the floor with ease, has great floor sense and the ability to move the ball, and can step back and knock down jumpers out to the 3-point line. On a Kentucky team stocked with talent, Towns figures to stand out.
Best case: No. 1 pick
Scout’s question: “He is a freakish athlete and talent and sometimes that works against you when you are a big guy — he is not going to be someone who has a clearly defined position. He is thin, he gets pushed around too easy. He is not always as assertive as he should be and that is a loaded team. He is going to have those 5-point, 4-rebound games. I mean, he could be a Chris Bosh-type, but you worry he will be a Perry Jones.”
Kelly Oubre, Kansas
Oubre has the raw athleticism, size (6-7) and length (7-1 wingspan) to be an NBA wing, but he also has good court sense and exceptional passing ability. He’s a smooth lefty who handles the ball well and has drawn comparisons to Tracy McGrady.
Best case: Top 5 pick
Scout’s question: “Shooting. Can he be a consistent shooter, is that something he is going to work on and improve? He moves well and he is very athletic, but I would expect defenses to just sag off him until he shows he can make shots consistently.”
Myles Turner, Texas
Turner was a late bloomer, undergoing a growth spurt in high school that saw him quickly go from an average-sized guard to a 7-foot center. He is raw, but he has a versatile game, with quickness and athleticism.
Best case: Top 10 pick
Scout’s question: “Does he have the mentality to be a big man? I have seen him at times where he seems to be sort of uncomfortable with his size, like he wants to be a guard but he is seven feet. He needs to get more aggressive in the paint, have more of an attitude like, ‘This is my area.’ He is very thin, and I think putting on weight physically will help with that mentality part of things.”
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona
Hollis-Jefferson is a terrific athlete who had a shot at going in the Top 20 if he had declared for last year’s draft. He is long-armed and — as scouts like to say — “springy.” What’s more, he seems to genuinely enjoy putting in effort on the defensive end, an attribute that will make NBA types of all stripes smile.
Best case: Late lottery pick
Scout’s question: “It is just hard to say what he can contribute offensively, because he did not focus much on that last year. But, OK, you have to wonder, why was that? Because he is not good enough offensively? Or because he did not see it as his role? They had a lot more guys who were veterans and scorers on that team, and I think he deferred to them. Let’s see how he does with more pressure on him to score.”
Chris Walker, Florida
We know why scouts are so interested in Walker — he is a terrific athlete with an NBA-style game, who has added muscle and polish heading into his sophomore year. He was supposed to have been a one-and-done player, but he was suspended for much of last season for receiving improper benefits, and could not get playing time once he was reinstated. He’s off to a bad start this year, already being suspended by Florida coach Billy Donovan for team rules violations.
Best case: Late lottery pick
Scout’s question: “He obviously has little interest in being in school, and that is maybe easy to understand — he should probably be in the NBA. But the problem is, OK, those are the rules, and how do you deal with them? Getting suspensions? Being a problem for your team? That is obviously a huge, huge red flag. Donovan will be a good coach for him because it will be shape up or ship out, but the kid has a lot to prove in the next few months.”
Wayne Selden, Kansas
Selden would have been a first-rounder if he had come out last season, but he was, on the whole, disappointing — in part because he struggled with a knee injury, and in part because he was behind Andrew Wiggins and Perry Ellis on the offensive pecking order.
Best case: Late lottery pick
Scout’s question: “He is going to be a shooting guard in the NBA, but he has the potential to play some point guard. We are using combo guards a lot more in the league, and I wonder whether he can be one. That’s one thing I liked about him last year — he showed he can handle the ball and pass. They don’t have a clear-cut point guard at Kansas this year, and that could be a role where he could define himself a little better, maybe show some Manu Ginobili sort of skills.”
Aaron Harrison, Kentucky
We all saw just what Harrison did during the NCAA tournament last year, when he took a stronger hand in the Kentucky offense and led the team to the final game, making crucial clutch 3-pointers in three consecutive crunch times. Harrison averaged 13.7 points last year, making 35.6 percent of his 3s, and got better as the year went on.
Best case: No. 14-20 pick
Scout’s question: “How are you going to top the way you ended the year, young man? He was on a high last year, and that was great, but by the time next year’s draft comes around, no one is going to be making picks with the 2014 tournament in mind. I want him to be a better all-around scorer and to show some leadership.”
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
Kaminsky is a center who shot 37.8 percent from the 3-point line last year and was dominant for a stretch in the NCAA tournament — including a 28-point, 11-rebound effort to beat Arizona and reach the Final Four. His shooting range and overall court awareness make him an ideal stretch-four/five in the NBA.
Best case: No. 15-25 pick
Scout’s question: “Can he defend the post? When you see how he shoots and how he can stretch the floor, the first guy you think of is Channing Frye. But a guy like Frye, even though he is thin, puts out a great defensive effort and that is the difference between him being a spot player and being a consistent rotation player. With Kaminsky, you want to see that level of defensive effort, especially since he is a senior.”
R.J. Hunter, Georgia State
Hunter went to Georgia State in order to play for his father, Ron, the coach there. Increasingly, NBA teams are amenable to selecting mid-major stars, and scouts have always had a soft spot for the sons of coaches. Hunter is a proven scorer from the shooting guard spot, averaging 7.7 3-point attempts per game last year, and making a healthy 39.5 percent of them.
Best case: No. 15-25 pick
Scout’s question: “He did not do particularly well against the big teams they played last year (including just 6 points against Alabama) so that is something he needs to do better this time around — when they get good competition, he has to come out ready to prove himself.”
