Game 1 spread, total: Golden State -6, 203 (check our odds page for the latest numbers)Series odds: Warriors -240, Cavaliers +200 

Line movement: The Game 1 spread has remained pretty steady after opening between -5.5 and -6. The total has seen some downward movement after opening at mostly 203.5 in Las Vegas. 

Outlook: Golden State (79-18 SU, 54-42-1 ATS) has been the best team in the NBA all season.  This is its first Finals appearance since winning it all in 1975, back when Rick Barry was still shooting underhand free throws.

The Warriors are 12-3 SU and 7-8 ATS in these playoffs, playing three solid teams in the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. Their home mark is 7-1 SU but just 3-5 ATS, ranging between 9.5- and 13-point favorites each game. This is their smallest home spread since early January.

League MVP, Stephen Curry, has increased his scoring from 23.8 PPG in the regular season to 29.2 PPG in the playoffs. However, team scoring overall has dropped from 110 PPG (ranked first) to 104.3 PPG.

The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Golden State’s games this postseason (7-0-1 at home). 

Shooting guard Klay Thompson, the other half of the Splash Brothers, is also key to the offense, averaging 21.7 PPG in the regular season.  He suffered a nasty concussion against Houston last game on May 27th, but has been cleared to play and isn’t expected to be limited.

Cleveland (65-31 SU, 48-48 ATS) has never won an NBA title, last making the Finals in 2007 in LeBron James’ first stint with the team.

The Cavaliers aren’t getting much respect as a 2-to-1 series dog. They have the NBA’s best all-around player in James and are riding a seven-game winning streak, taking the final three against the Bulls before sweeping the not-ready-for-primetime Hawks. 

Coach David Blatt has seen his defense step up this postseason, allowing a tied-for-league-best 92.6 PPG. Part of the reason has been starting Tristan Thompson for the injured Kevin Love the last two series, and the Cavs have held their opponents to just 28.1 percent shooting from 3-point range. That won’t continue with Golden State being great from beyond the arc.

Point guard Kyrie Irving (knee) missed two games in the Atlanta series before returning to play 22 minutes in the Game 4 closeout. He is listed as probable, but will not be 100 percent by his own admission. Irving (21.7 PPG regular season) is needed to score this series and also give a good defensive effort against Curry. 

James has been mostly magnificent this postseason (27.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG. 8.3 APG), taking the team on his back after the injuries to Love and Irving. James has shot just 42.8 percent from the field and will need to be more efficient as his supporting cast is not as strong as Curry’s.

The Cavaliers have to be considered at least dangerous for Game 1 after winning their last four road games (covering the last three). Getting the upset would also turn around the series odds in a hurry. 

The UNDER has easily gone 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four away, with the team scoring 92.8 PPG and allowing just 82 PPG.

The Linemakers’ lean: Cleveland is the better team in these NBA Finals and has had a tougher road in the playoffs, says The Linemakers’ Kenny White, who predicts the Cavs to win the series in seven games and says they present excellent value at 2-to-1 odds.

Game 1, though, is Golden State’s game.  “I think LeBron and company will make adjustments in Game 2 and make Game 2 so much closer and give them a chance to win,” Kenny says.

We’ll also go UNDER the total in the series opener, thanks to strong defense by both teams coupled with the nerves of players who aren’t yet used to this stage (save LeBron, of course).

Our Game 1 plays are Golden State -6 and UNDER 203, while we’ll wager on Cleveland +200 to win the series.

NBA betting info: Power ratings  | Cavaliers page | Warriors page | CLE-GSW by the numbers

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