The NBA’s annual Christmas Day tradition continues tomorrow with five marquee matchups spread evenly from 12:10 p.m. EST to 10:30 p.m. EST. The slate starts with the Philadelphia 76ers (19-12, 5-7 away) visiting the New York Knicks (18-15, 8-9 home), followed by the LA Lakers (13-19, 5-11 away) vs. Dallas Mavericks (17-16, 12-5 home), Milwaukee Bucks (22-10, 8-7 away) vs. Boston Celtics (23-10, 12-5 home), Memphis Grizzlies (20-11, 7-9 away) vs Golden State Warriors (15-18, 12-2 home), and Phoenix Suns (19-14, 5-9 away) vs Denver Nuggets (20-11, 11-3 home).
The table below shows the full slate of odds for each game, plus tip-off time. Under the table, find my best bets for the day’s action.
NBA Christmas Odds
The Mavericks are the biggest favorites on the board, laying 8.5 at home against LeBron James and the Lakers. The narrowest margin is in the 76ers vs. Knicks game, where the visitors are 2.5-point chalk.
The line that jumps out is the Warriors catching 5.5 points at home against Ja Morant’s Grizzlies. But the reason is simple: neither Steph Curry (shoulder) nor Andrew Wiggins (groin) will be in Sunday’s NBA lineups, while Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are both listed as day-to-day.
The other confirmed absences on Christmas Day include Anthony Davis (Lakers), Cameron Payne (Suns), Devin Booker (Suns), Jeff Green (Nuggets), Khris Middleton (Bucks), and Tyrese Maxey (76ers).
Pick #1: Bucks vs. Celtics Under 224.5 (-110)
One game that I expect to have a playoff-type atmosphere on Christmas Day is the Bucks vs. Celtics matchup at TD Garden. Currently sitting first and second in the Eastern Conference portion of the NBA playoff bracket, Milwaukee trails Boston by just half a game and would take over the #1 seed with a win on Sunday.
This will be the first meeting of the season between the teams, but there is ample recent history. The Bucks and Celtics played an epic best-of-seven series in the playoffs last year, with Boston emerging victorious in Game 7.
Guess how many of those games went over 224.5.
If you guessed zero, you’re correct.
The teams combined to average just 203.2 points per game during the series. Three games (Games 1, 2, and 7) stayed under 200. Game 4 was the highest-scoring, landing right on 224.
Their four regular-season games were higher scoring, averaging 228.5 points in regulation time. But this is about as close to a playoff-type atmosphere as you will get during the regular season. The defensive intensity should be ramped up, and both teams have excellent defenses to rely on. Milwaukee is currently third in the league in Defensive Rating (108.5) - considerably better than it was last season - while the Celtics are seventh (110.6) - slightly worse than last year.
Pick: Under 224.5 (-110)
Pick #2: Knicks moneyline (+114) vs. 76ers
The Knicks have been a fickle team this season. After stumbling to a 10-13 start, they rattled off eight straight wins before dropping their last two at home, both as betting favorites. On Wednesday, New York fell 113-106 to the Raptors as two-point chalk. Yesterday, they let a fourth-quarter lead get away in a 118-117 loss to the Bulls as six-point favorites.
The Sixers, meanwhile, come in red-hot, winning seven straight after a three-game losing streak brought them back to .500. The win streak largely coincides with Philly getting James Harden back from injury. But it’s important to note that all seven of those wins came at home, and only two were against teams that hold a top-eight seed in either conference (#5 Clippers and #6 Kings). The Sixers are 14-5 on their home court this year and just 5-7 away. They have only won two road games since October, and both came against the 13-21 Magic.
New York is a subpar 8-9 at home on the season, but the Sixers have shown a real inability to beat above-average teams in hostile environments, and that trends dates back much further than just this season. Playing their first road game in three weeks, expect a sluggish performance from Philadelphia and a bounce-back game from New York.
Pick: Knicks moneyline (+114)
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