Game 2 has typically been the best opportunity to see the turnaround, because the deficit isn't insurmountable and the losing team believes it has a realistic chance to get back in the series. If they're down 2-0 or 3-0, the psychology becomes different.
The sports books, of course, are on to the bounce-back theory, which is why there usually is at least a half- or full-point adjustment from the first game.
The Thunder closed at -8 for Saturday's Game 1 against the Grizzlies and opened at -7.5 at the South Point for tonight’s Game 2 (8 p.m. ET, TNT). Bettors grabbed the points, pushing the number down to -7, and that’s where the number stood as of delivery of this newsletter (check current spreads and totals on our live odds page). OKC was impressive in Game 1, while Memphis was sluggish in the first half. Memphis should show a lot better in Game 2, and with the first game staying UNDER, we get a smaller total this time around. The plays are Memphis +7 and OVER 189.5.
In tonight’s 10:30 p.m. ET tip (also on TNT), the bounce-back theory has the number pushed to Clippers -8. In Game 1, the number opened -6.5, just as our power ratings suggested it should, and bettors pushed it up to -7.5.
We saw a sloppy first game, and the Clippers played with a hand tied behind their backs, as one of their best weapons -- Blake Griffin -- was on the bench in foul trouble.
Game 2 is huge for the Clippers and can easily be deemed a must-win for them. Doc Rivers should have his team better prepared to win, which means pushing the pace, but the zig-zag theory doesn’t always work and this is too many points to lay. The value is with the Warriors. Take +8.5 if you can get it, and OVER 212.
