Will we see Cavs-Warriors IV in the 2018 Finals? Can the Warriors repeat?
PLAYOFF PICKS: Eastern Conference | Western Conference
AccuScore has simulated the NBA playoffs thousands of times to calculate probabilities for each team to win its first-round series and advance to win the NBA Finals. Championship probabilities for all playoff teams are listed in the table below and will be updated throughout the postseason.
AccuScore’s odds to win NBA Finals
NBA playoff predictions, values
There’s a clear gap after the Warriors’ title chances, but the Houston Rockets are No. 2 with a 16-percent probability to win the NBA championship, followed by Eastern Conference heavyweights Philadelphia, Cleveland and Toronto.
When comparing these win probabilities to Vegas’ NBA championship odds, only a few teams have some value for bettors. AccuScore predicts that Philadelphia will win the Eastern Conference and, based on our simulations, the 76ers’ win probability is about seven points higher compared to Vegas odds. The Celtics’ win probability is six points higher than Vegas even without Kyrie Irving, as it looks like sportsbooks are not believing in Boston’s chances for a long postseason run.
As usual, some of the first-round matchups are very uneven. Teams like Toronto (No. 1 seed in the East) and Cleveland (No. 2) should easily cruise into the second round. However, some matchups are predicted to be very tight, especially in the Western Conference. We think the series between the Thunder and Jazz will most probably be decided in Game 7, with the Thunder holding a slight edge.
AccuScore will update NBA championship probabilities throughout the playoffs.
