Point spreads and totals are current as of Saturday morning. Check our odds page for updated Las Vegas lines.
No. 1 Golden State Warriors at No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)Game 4 spread, total: Golden State -7, 206 Series lead: Golden State 3-0
The Warriors should feel very fortunate to be up 3-0 this series, rallying from a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit on Thursday to win 123-119 OT as 5-point road favorites. Golden State hasn’t covered a game in these playoffs and is 0-6 ATS in its last six overall.
The Warriors (70-15 SU, 47-37-1 ATS) are doing what great teams do, win even when they shouldn’t. Now they look to finish the job and prevent the series from moving back to the Bay Area on Tuesday. The team does need the bench to step up after getting outscored 58-26 last game. Reserve David Lee (back) has been upgraded to probable to make his series debut.
The Pelicans (45-40 SU, 49-36 ATS) improved to 26-16 ATS at home this year, including covering all three at the Smoothie King Center against Golden State. However, they have to be completely demoralized at this point as they could be leading this series with some more poise and big shots. That’s the main reason why they’re a bigger underdog in Game 4 than Game 3.
The Linemakers’ lean: Look for the Pelicans to try to keep the pace as methodical as possible, and with an upward adjustment on the total, we’re seeing some value with the UNDER.
No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies at No. 4 Portland Trail Blazers (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)Game 3 spread, total: Portland -3, 189Series lead: Memphis 2-0
The Grizzlies continued their dominance over Portland with easy home wins (100-86, 97-82) in the first two games. They are now 6-0 SU and ATS against the Trail Blazers this year. Both games this series have stayed UNDER the total, making it four in a row in games between these teams.
The Trail Blazers (51-33 SU, 40-43-1 ATS) are in bad need of home cooking and have gone a much-better 32-9 SU and 22-18-1 ATS at the Moda Center this year. They could also get Arron Afflalo (shoulder) back after missing the first two games. He is really needed with Wesley Matthews lost for the year in early March.
The Grizzlies (57-27 SU, 42-40-2 ATS) have covered the spread in five-straight games. They are much deeper than Portland, especially with Tony Allen now starting and Jeff Green coming off the bench. Big men Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have combined to shoot 33.3 percent from the field in the first two games and should improve on Saturday.
The Linemakers’ lean: Sure, the Blazers are a good team in need of a win at home, a spot that surely tempts some bettors. But it’s clear they’re outmatched at pretty much every position in this series, as they’ve been owned by Memphis all season long. We’ll take the Grizz +3.
We’ll also keep riding the UNDER, as the pace slowed from Game 1 to Game 2, and we don’t see that pattern changing as defenses become more familiar with the opposition.
NBA betting info: Power ratings | ATS standings
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